Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.007885 0.008875 0.009957 0.011231 0.012693 0.014322 0.016280
2024-12-29 0.006258 0.007586 0.009165 0.011192 0.013744 0.016869 0.021020
2025-01-05 0.005608 0.007144 0.009079 0.011716 0.015257 0.019898 0.026530
2025-01-12 0.004808 0.006360 0.008400 0.011314 0.015427 0.021116 0.029736
2025-01-19 0.004231 0.005777 0.007885 0.011017 0.015637 0.022333 0.033021
2025-01-26 0.003858 0.005421 0.007623 0.011017 0.016228 0.024118 0.037344
2025-02-02 0.003685 0.005323 0.007706 0.011509 0.017584 0.027191 0.044109
2025-02-09 0.003397 0.005022 0.007451 0.011446 0.018050 0.028892 0.048828
2025-02-16 0.003191 0.004821 0.007323 0.011559 0.018795 0.031119 0.054765
2025-02-23 0.002950 0.004544 0.007047 0.011393 0.019039 0.032496 0.059333
2025-03-02 0.002801 0.004399 0.006966 0.011541 0.019833 0.034930 0.066262
2025-03-09 0.002624 0.004193 0.006765 0.011456 0.020191 0.036592 0.071901
2025-03-16 0.002383 0.003869 0.006350 0.010976 0.019808 0.036877 0.074928
2025-03-23 0.002237 0.003694 0.006181 0.010928 0.020249 0.038856 0.081999
2025-03-30 0.002192 0.003691 0.006307 0.011438 0.021837 0.043373 0.095609
2025-04-06 0.002018 0.003446 0.005980 0.011046 0.021553 0.043908 0.099970
2025-04-13 0.001876 0.003247 0.005720 0.010758 0.021448 0.044812 0.105398
2025-04-20 0.001784 0.003133 0.005609 0.010758 0.021954 0.047148 0.114919
2025-04-27 0.001759 0.003141 0.005728 0.011236 0.023563 0.052265 0.132893
2025-05-04 0.001672 0.003024 0.005596 0.011175 0.023949 0.054517 0.143446
2025-05-11 0.001610 0.002952 0.005546 0.011285 0.024742 0.057886 0.157968
2025-05-18 0.001524 0.002827 0.005380 0.011124 0.024867 0.059570 0.167800
2025-05-25 0.001476 0.002772 0.005353 0.011268 0.025753 0.063380 0.185167